First-Round Rookie Quarterback Rankings

There is some massive excitement surrounding this year’s rookie class. This hype is headlined by the top quarterbacks, with six being taken in the first round. In the NFL, it is crucial to get your signal caller right, as they make the biggest difference of any player on the field between winning and losing games. Therefore, let’s rank who likely got their quarterback selection right, and who might have ended up with a bust. 

1. Jayden Daniels - Washington Commanders

Ever since the Commanders lost Kirk Cousins to the Minnesota Vikings in free agency, they have been incompetent at the quarterback position. Despite various attempts to resolve the position, it has just been a continual revolving door with no clear franchise guy. However, the commanders may have just managed to get their hands on the most dynamic and best quarterback in this year’s draft with Jayden Daniels. At LSU during his Heisman season, Jayden Daniels lit up the SEC Conference with around 5000 total yards and 50 total touchdowns. If he can perform the same way he did the last year in college then he will give the Commanders very similar production to what Lamar Jackson gives to the Ravens. There are a few concerns that people have about Daniels coming into the NFL. Firstly, he is undersized and the concerns about his weight are real as he did take some significant shots in college. If he can learn to protect himself by sliding and avoiding those hits then he hopefully won’t get injured too often. Additionally, he did throw to some great receivers while at LSU, but when throwing to them he would throw them open which is different from throwing to them when they are open. Overall, his groundbreaking running and throwing ability should make him a tremendous asset for the Washington Commanders franchise.

2. Caleb Williams - Chicago Bears

Similar to the Washington Commanders, the Chicago Bears have been desperate for a good quarterback to lead their franchise for years. They now believe that they have got their quarterback of the future after selecting Caleb Williams with the first overall pick in this past draft. At USC, Williams was electric with his ability to improvise broken plays and turn them into home runs for the offense. His rocket arm, combined with his ability to navigate the pocket, makes him an electric talent entering the league. Additionally, he will be entering into a great situation with Chicago who made a considerable effort to make the skill positions on this offense better this offseason by acquiring Kenan Allen, DeAndre Swift, and Rome Odunze. However, the concern for Caleb Williams is that he can play too much “hero ball” and force throws while holding the ball for too long in the pocket. This led to him throwing five interceptions and fumbling the ball eight times this past collegiate season. While his ceiling is really high, he could also turn into a turnover machine similar to Jamesis Winston.

3. Micheal Penix Jr. - Atlanta Falcons

A better version of Tua Tagovailoa. Micheal Penix Jr. might have the best and most accurate arm of anyone in this draft class. He showed at Washington that he can make just about any throw given the right players around him. He is an outstanding pocket passer and can maneuver the pocket well. However, he can’t throw on the run or improvise well because of his limited athleticism when broken plays happen. This was put on full display against Michigan’s stout defense in the College Football National Championship game. So there are some concerns about him playing against an NFL defense, but if he is given time to develop and get used to reading the defense, he could become a really good quarterback in the NFL. Most likely he becomes like Tua Tagovailoa in the NFL but has better arm talent.

4. Bo Nix - Denver Broncos

People will talk about how old Bo Nix is entering the league, but his additional time in college may actually serve him well in the NFL. Even though Bo Nx is 24 years old entering the NFL there are several things the Broncos won’t have to worry about with him. Unlike many rookie quarterbacks where you have to worry about them as a leader because they have too much of an ego, Bo Nix will be an adult in this locker room and in front of the media. But more than his demeanor, he does a lot of things well on the field. He was extremely precise at Oregon completing 77% of his passes, while throwing 45 touchdowns, and only three interceptions this past collegiate season. I was worried that he depended too much on one receiver this past season, Troy Franklin, but then the Broncos drafted him later in the draft. If Sean Payton can simplify the offense for Bo Nix then he could turn out to be similar to Jared Goff in the NFL.

5. J.J. McCarthy - Minnesota Vikings

J.J. McCarthy has won everywhere he has been. Coming off a National Championship with Michigan, J.J. rode this momentum as he was selected in the first round by the Vikings. He is solid at every element of the position, but he might not be talented enough at any one thing to be a viable starter in the NFL. It is tough to evaluate how good McCarthy is because he was so dependent on the run game and the offensive line at Michigan to create easy opportunities for throws off play-action. When McCarthy is forced to drop back to pass and the defense knows the pass is coming then he really starts to struggle. Any reasonable Michigan fan would tell you that they felt a lot better last year with Blake Corum or Donovan Edwards handling the ball on offense instead of McCarthy dropping back to pass. Overall, he could turn into a solid NFL quarterback if he develops and has the right pieces around him similar to Brock Purdy.

6. Drake Maye - New England Patriots

As a Patriots fan, this one hurts. However, as an objective analyst evaluating these quarterbacks, Drake Maye is by far the most likely bust out of these six first-round quarterbacks. At UNC, Drake Maye struggled in his last year putting up 24 passing touchdowns and nine interceptions in a weaker ACC Conference. After watching his college tape before the draft, I couldn’t stand his inability to read a defense and throw to a second option when his first option wasn’t available. This leads to him forcing the ball to the receiver he selects pre-snap, and although his ball placement is good on those throws, you can’t pre-determine who you are throwing the ball to in the NFL and expect to have success. Many people compare him to Josh Allen entering the league, but the difference is that when you watched Josh Allen’s tape at Wyoming, he was undoubtedly the best and most dynamic player on that field. When watching Drake Maye at UNC he didn’t look dominant against weaker opponents. The times when he played against ranked opponents, he would mightily struggle, throwing at times several interceptions a game. He feels a lot like Trey Lance entering the league, and I was banging the table then that he was a bust. He is going to need to sit for at least a year and it isn’t surprising that there are reports now coming out of New England that Joe Milton, who was drafted in the sixth round, is outperforming Drake Maye in camp. Overall, Maye is an absolute project quarterback and a long way from Jayden Daniels who went just one pick above him.

Best Rookie QB

• Caleb Williams
• Jayden Daniels
• Drake Maye
• Micheal Penix Jr.

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Worst Rookie QB

• J.J. McCarthy
• Drake Maye
• Bo Nix
• Micheal Penix Jr.

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