Can Baker Mayfield Cook Up an MVP Season?

After years of inconsistency and questions about his career trajectory, Baker Mayfield could finally be poised for one of the best seasons of his career. With a loaded set of weapons at his disposal, including the veteran presence of Mike Evans and the emerging star Emeka Egbuka, the opportunity is there for Mayfield to elevate his play and put himself in the conversation for MVP this year. This isn’t just about talent on paper; it’s about the way an elite supporting cast can transform a quarterback’s production and perception.

History offers a clear blueprint. Last season, Sam Darnold thrived in a situation where he had dynamic receiving options like Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Darnold threw for over 4,000 yards, completing nearly 70% of his passes, and posted a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 32:8. These numbers were a dramatic improvement from previous years, and a large component of his improvement was the talent around him. Jefferson and Addison consistently created separation, with Jefferson averaging over 17 yards per reception and Addison showing explosive big-play ability. Mayfield’s situation mirrors this perfectly: Evans has averaged over 1,000 yards per season for his career, providing a dependable deep threat, while Egbuka, with his 4.3-second 40-yard dash speed and route-running versatility, creates matchup nightmares for defenses. The potential for similar statistical production is tangible.

For Mayfield, this season is about more than just raw numbers—it’s about leading an offense that can sustain drives, finish in the red zone, and consistently convert explosive opportunities into points. With Evans’ high catch rate and ability to dominate contested catches, combined with Egbuka’s yards after catch potential, Mayfield could realistically throw for over 4500 passing yards and 40 touchdowns if he maximizes efficiency and minimizes turnovers. If he reaches even close to those marks, his performance would not only mirror Darnold’s success of last year but likely surpass it, especially given the added versatility in his weapons.

That said, there are challenges for Mayfield on the MVP path. Unlike quarterbacks such as Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, or Lamar Jackson, Mayfield does not offer significant rushing upside. He isn’t a threat to break off big plays with his legs, and defenses can focus more on coverage without fearing a dual-threat quarterback. This limits his ceiling in total yardage and highlight-reel impact, areas that often factor into MVP voting. Additionally, the success of his candidacy will be heavily tied to team performance, which will be tough given the other strong teams across the league.

Regardless, quarterbacks thrive when they have the right tools, and Mayfield’s supporting cast is arguably one of the best, with a balance between veteran reliability and explosive youth. If he can harness their skills, protect the football, and make timely plays under pressure, there’s no reason Mayfield can’t emerge as an MVP candidate this season.